In 2013, a study from the University of Texas on new wine production areas caused quite a stir in the wine world: by analyzing climate data, emissions, and future water availability, researchers highlighted how viticulture is sensitive to climate change, which is becoming increasingly evident in regions with a Mediterranean climate.
According to the study, by 2050, the area suitable for wine grape cultivation will decrease by between 25% and 73% in current production areas. Climate change could lead to vineyards settling at higher elevations, increasing impacts on mountain ecosystems, and shifting towards unusual latitudes, converting virgin or forested land into cultivable soil. Additionally, efforts to maintain the productivity and quality of wine grapes in the face of global warming could be associated with increased water use for irrigation and cooling grapes through irrigation or watering, potentially impacting water resource conservation.
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Climate Impact on Vineyards
Like any plant, grapevines respond autonomously to changes in environmental conditions to ensure their survival. Today, in areas with a strong viticultural tradition, it has been noted that rising temperatures have led to early grape ripening, resulting in decreased acidity and increased sugar content. As a result, wines are fuller, fruitier, and higher in alcohol concentation.
The increase in temperatures, therefore, can lead to better performance of some grape varieties, especially if located in cooler climates. The case of Germany is emblematic: in the country, the area dedicated to vine cultivation has steadily increased, as has the quantity of wine produced, which has shown positive variations even in years when neighboring countries have faced evident difficulties.
In the image above taken from the University of Texas study entitled Climate change, wine, and conservation, the current wine production areas are highlighted in red, those that could remain so until 2050 are highlighted in green and those that are are considered the wine production areas of the future.
New Production Areas
Global warming has also caused the expansion of cultivation area boundaries. Typically, vineyards thrive successfully between 30 and 50 degrees of latitude. But as global average temperatures continue to rise, the most ideal areas for planting are shifting farther from the equator, leading to the emergence of new wine production areas.
While current areas with Mediterranean climates (Southern Europe, California, Southern Australia, South Africa, Central Chile, and Western Argentina) risk becoming increasingly inhospitable for vines, Northern Europe, foothill, and coastal areas could be ideal for expanding cultivation. In Belgium, for example, between 2006 and 2018, wine production quadrupled
In Scandinavia, there is a growing emphasis on developing a local wine industry. While Denmark already has an established albeit niche tradition, Sweden could become the producer of the future. For about 25 years, the country has been developing its own wine sector, mainly based on Solaris grapes, which ripen well in a cool climate and are vinified using the champagne method.
In the South of England, a wine-producing region since the late 1990s, there is a consolidation of sparkling wine production benefiting from the cool climate and acidic soil.
In the United States, where Napa Valley is synonymous with quality wine, the thawing of Montana‘s mountainous areas has made water and soil resources available, which are already under the scrutiny of the wine industry. The same goes for Tasmania, considered the new promised land for Australian wines, which until now saw the Barossa Valley as the preferred area for Riesling and Syrah.
